Trump vs. the Cartels: Latin America's Choice
This article was published in collaboration with the Young Diplomats Society, as part of their Year in Review.
In early October, the Trump administration released a memo announcing that the U.S. is in an “armed conflict” with drug cartels and will treat their members as “unlawful combatants”. This designation effectively puts them in the same legal category as terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda or the Islamic State. Just a few weeks earlier, the U.S. military attacked at least three boats from Venezuela allegedly transporting narco-traffickers and illegal substances. The words and actions taken so far suggest that the U.S. is adopting an aggressive approach toward the cartels, but it remains to be seen how Latin American countries, particularly Venezuela, Mexico, and El Salvador, will respond to this show of force.
Why Venezuela?
The key focus of the Trump administration’s anti-cartel operations has been on Venezuela. Besides maritime strikes, officials claim they’ve identified targets in the country, including military facilities supposedly used to smuggle drugs, which could be struck from the air within days or even hours. Given Venezuela is a major transit hub for drugs to Europe and North America, exporting nearly 500 tons of cocaine yearly, it seems obvious why they would be in the spotlight. However, some experts believe that there’s more to this situation than meets the eye.
One theory revolves around Marco Rubio, who harbors a long-standing animosity toward leftist Latin American dictators - a description that fits Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Considering his role as Trump’s national security advisor, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suspect some back-door politicking at play. A closer analysis of the data lends further credence to this belief. Indeed, the world’s largest producer of cocaine is not Venezuela but its neighbor Colombia. Moreover, fentanyl, the drug dominating headlines in U.S. media, doesn’t even originate from Venezuela. The most damning evidence though comes from Coast Guard seizure records showing that maritime traffickers bring most U.S.-bound cocaine through the Pacific, not the Caribbean, where Venezuela’s only coastline lies.
While the true motives of the Trump administration may remain murky, deep-rooted historical tensions are likely to shape whether Latin American nations cooperate with U.S.-led cartel operations or resist them in defense of their sovereignty. During the Cold War, the U.S. carried out covert interventions in numerous Latin American nations, notably Chile, Guatemala, and Cuba. In a rare American interview in 2019, Maduro stated, “We are South Americans, you are North Americans. To look for 21st century solutions not Cold War solutions. The Cold War should stay behind”. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also pushed back on the Trump administration’s war on drugs, saying, “There are international laws on how to operate when dealing with the alleged illegal transport of drugs or guns on international waters”, in response to airstrikes in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
Mexico’s Dilemma
Mexico finds itself in a unique position: sharing a border with the U.S., it must deal with both powerful drug cartels and the ongoing illegal immigration crisis. However, unlike Maduro, Trump appears to have a more cordial relationship with Sheinbaum. She’s even been referred to in media reports as the “Trump whisperer”. Additionally, the U.S. formally recognizes Mexico’s government, a status not granted to Venezuela, and the two countries conduct over $700 billion in annual trade, making open conflict improbable. What’s more likely is the Trump administration pressures Mexico to ramp up its own cartel crackdown, while pursuing a less direct approach through tariffs and trade restrictions.
This puts Sheinbaum in a difficult position. She has repeatedly asserted that her government refuses any process of interference and interventionism, but continuing to do so risks economic retaliation. Domestic pressure is also intensifying, as the recent slaying of Uruapan mayor Carlos Manzo has triggered national outcry over cartel power. Manzo was admired among constituents for his uncompromising stance against the cartels, and after he got gunned down at a Day of the Dead celebration, tens of thousands poured down the streets of his hometown to protest the assassination. In the wake of the mayor’s murder, Sheinbaum is launching a “Plan Michoacán” in an attempt to bolster security. Erubiel Tirado, a security expert at Iberoamerican University in Mexico City remains skeptical, saying, “It’s the latest of many such plans - none have worked”.
Given the present circumstances, Mexico’s most pragmatic course of action might be to publicly denounce U.S. militarization while quietly enabling back-channel coordination. This would allow the government to save face with its citizens, avoid angering the Trump administration, and work toward breaking the structural control of organized crime within the country. The critical question is can Sheinbaum pull off such a delicate balancing act.
El Salvador’s Friendship Built on Prisons & Politics
If Venezuela’s relationship with the Trump administration is defined by hatred, and Mexico’s by ambivalence, then El Salvador’s is defined by shared interests. Similar to Trump, President Nayib Bukele is an extremely polarizing populist who doesn’t shy away from controversy. He brands himself as an anti-establishment figure who “gets things done”, and one of his top priorities is crime. Following a surge in gang violence in March 2022, Bukele imposed a “state of exception” that suspended constitutional rights and accelerated mass detentions of suspected gang members. More than 85,000 people have been imprisoned since then, and his domestic approval rating has soared (currently between 85% and 91%).
Unsurprisingly, Bukele and Trump have forged a close and strategic relationship, with the former helping to implement the latter’s anti-cartel agenda. Both leaders have formally designated MS-13, an international criminal gang with a major base in El Salvador, as a terrorist group. Furthermore, Trump has praised Bukele’s tough-on-crime policies, exemplified by the construction of the Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CECOT) mega-prison in late 2022, which houses many MS-13 members. In return for Trump’s support, Bukele gains political credit by reinforcing his “strongman” reputation and boosting the regime’s international profile. If relations with Venezuela and Mexico are seen as frosty at best and antagonistic at worst, Trump could use the El Salvador example as a model for future alliances in Latin America.
An Uncertain Future
Overall, the Trump administration is moving toward greater militarisation in its campaign against cartels in Latin America. Several countries will vehemently oppose any intervention, while others may seek compromise or even welcome an escalation. It remains to be seen though whether the U.S. can shift from disruption to sustainable transformation, which would require long-term collaboration with its Latin American partners. If that doesn’t happen, the hard-power gains could prove shallow and temporary, as the cartels bide their time to rise again.
Content Disclaimer
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Australia Latam Emerging Leaders Dialogue.